[FREE IRAN Project] In The Spirit Of Cyrus The Great

[Rasker]

Assad loses Iran's trust after surprise withdrawal from Lebanon
August 31, 2005
Reform Part of Syria thru freemuslims.org

For years, Iran and Syria were the closest of allies. Today, their relations are fraught with deep suspicion and several strategic projects have been scaled down.

Western intelligence sources said Iran no longer trusts Syrian President Bashar Assad and his regime. Iran sees Assad as weak and susceptible to Western and particularly U.S. pressure.

Assad visited Teheran several weeks ago in an effort to improve relations. But sources said the Syrian president was given a cool reception. Iran has been quietly promoting alternatives to Assad, including members of his family deemed as more capable of resisting U.S. pressure, the sources said.

Iran has long distrusted Assad. But relations plunged when Assad ordered the military withdrawal from Lebanon in April 2005. Sources said Assad's decision was taken without consultation with Teheran and left Iran, with several hundred military operatives in Lebanon, in a lurch.

Iran was concerned that the Syrian pullout would also leave Hizbullah susceptible to an effort by the Lebanese government to dismantle the Shi'ite insurgency group. Hizbullah is Iran's leading tool to strike its adversaries, particularly Israel and the United States.

The high-handed Iranian approach resulted in a slowdown in joint strategic programs with Damascus. Joint missile development and production have been stalled as Iran has found more reliable and capable suppliers.

Syria also owes Iran money and favors for previous technology transfers.

Iran's supreme leader Khameini and his new President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad do not plan to sever strategic relations with the Assad regime; that's not how Iran works. Instead, Iran was expected to keep relations with Syria on a low-burner as Teheran quietly reaches out directly to the European Union and the United States.

Syria's concern is that Iran has already reached agreement with the United States on a deal that would reduce Washington's pressure on Teheran's nuclear weapons program. The purported deal would guarantee Iranian support to help quell the Sunni insurgency in Iraq. Assad has been the leading supporter of the Sunni insurgency in Iraq.

"Over the past few years and despite the rhetoric, Iran has followed a very pragmatic foreign policy," stated Marwan Al Kabalan, a lecturer in media and international relations at Damascus University.

"It adapted quickly to the changes in the international system and reaped the profit in Iraq and Afghanistan. It is looking today for a deal with the West to resume its nuclear program," he wrote in an analysis. "Isn't it wiser for Syria to follow the lead, stop relying on unreliable regional alliances and adjust its policies to the post-9/11 era?"
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The Sun Is Rising In The West!Soon It Will Shine on All of Iran!

[Oppenheimer]

Dear Rasker,

Interesting...but I'm not convinced.

Question in my mind, given the ratcheting up of US position in regards to Syria's Support for terrorism is whether....

US "exit strategy" in Iraq involves a hard left turn, strait to the Med and whether IRI will come unglued and retaliate if that happens.

Party to isolating IRI is getting rid of it's proxy servers, and allies.

Then, having no one to do the terrorism for them, they have to either stop altogether, or come out of the closet .....

[Rasker]

From what I read more hostile people and material actually come over the Syrian border, than the Iranian. Securing that flank would make Iraqi security an easier task. And the forces in place could blow through the terrain and Assad's forces all the way to Damascus in a few days with hardly breaking a sweat, assuming sufficient air cover (what we have in Iraq, plus the Vinson air group from the Gulf, plus perhaps one carrier in the Med). God knows we have enough evidence of Syrian complicity in the killing of our people in Iraq. And solving the Syrian problem would put Hezbollah between Iraq and a hard place (to coin one of those horrible Oppy puns! ) Disposing of Assad might signal to the Middle East that the IRI regime is impotent to protect one of its strategic interests - there's nothing the Middle East despises more than weakness. Another tyranny put on the road to democracy can only further empower the peoples of the Middle East and demoralize the dictators and mullahs.

Perhaps we could start 'hot pursuit' actions across the border, after all, if the Syrians can't police their border, perhaps we'll have to! Assad really seems to be living dangerously, I wonder if he knows how dangerously?
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The Sun Is Rising In The West!Soon It Will Shine on All of Iran!

[Oppenheimer]

As for "hot persuit" , at this time we can and will fire across the border if fired upon.

It's a different animal to cross the border with troops.

(chuckle)...That "horrible pun" was referencing Afghanistan as the "hard place" and IRAn is indeed smack in between Iraq and that Hard place.

The problem as I see it if diplomacy fails to get Assad to comply fully with international law....is it's possetion of chem , bio and possibly a nuke.

Again though, were military intervention to happen, they'd be told in no uncertain terms exactly what the concequences of using them would be.

And who knows....we may just find those "missing WMD's" if we did take a sharp left turn.

Hisballah would most likely attach Israel with those Iranian supplied rockets, drawing Israel into the fight....but if not...or ordered not to...then perhaps a regional conflict can be avoided.

Otherwise I think Iran would also get drawn into it.

It's a hard situation to predict probabilities....a lot of factors involved....and how do you contain the conflict once it starts? That is the question.

Even with a UN Sec. Council mamdate, it could blow wide open...so containing Iran's involvement is key.

As for Iran's involvement in Iraq....the #1 sponsor of terrorism became that because they are just a bit more subtle, and better at erasing their tracks over the years....but don't think that Syria is a greater problem, they are just being more overt about it.

Those Martyrs the Iranian embassies are giving visa to, are going direct to the airport in Damascus....an interesting twist that will be exposed.