[FREE IRAN Project] In The Spirit Of Cyrus The Great

[Rasker]

U.S. Keeps Heat on Syria as U.N. Meetings Wind Down
Sunday, September 18, 2005

Rice: U.N. Must Launch 'Revolution of Reform'
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Rice Touts Changes for Ukraine, Iran
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NEW YORK — The U.S. is using the largest gathering of world leaders to try to keep up international pressure on Syria (search) by branding it a meddlesome neighbor and a holdout against democratic advances in the Middle East.

Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice takes up the charge in meetings with other diplomats this week.

After a week of international meetings at the United Nations, Rice concludes her participation with a high-level meeting on Lebanon and a separate gathering of the nations and organizations helping to steer Israel and the Palestinians back to the peace table. The sessions will be the first major international gatherings on the Middle East since Israel withdrew from the Gaza Strip.

No major announcements on the Israeli-Palestinian peace process are expected after Tuesday's meeting of the key Mideast peacemakers — the United Nations, the United States, the European Union (search) and Russia.

Although the Europeans, in particular, want to pressure Israel to continue the momentum of the Gaza withdrawal into the West Bank, the Bush administration probably will urge patience.

The U.N. gathering has seen some Mideast diplomacy that would have been shocking just a year or two ago.

Qatar, Pakistan and Indonesia have held high-level public meetings with Israel — a rare event for Muslim countries. Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon received particular praise at the summit for the Gaza pullout, deemed a "courageous" act by Pakistan's president, Gen. Pervez Musharraf.

When Sharon met on Friday with Jordan's King Abdullah II, it was their first talks in months and a further sign of warming relations between the Jewish state and the Arab world after Israel ended its 38-year Gaza occupation. The pullout is Israel's first evacuation of territory Palestinians claim for a future state.

On Saturday, Rice had her picture taken with her counterpart from Libya. Washington still considers the North African nation a state sponsor of terrorism, but it has dropped economic penalties and strengthened diplomatic ties since Libya renounced weapons of mass destruction in December 2003.

As for Syria, also on the State Department's list of terrorism outlaws, its relations with the U.S. are getting worse.

Monday's meeting of European and Arab powers with economic ties to Lebanon was giving Rice a chance to argue that Syria was continuing to disrupt politics and daily life in Lebanon.

After effectively occupying Lebanon for nearly three decades. Syrian troops left last spring in the wake of anti-Syrian street demonstrations and political turmoil. The U.S. maintains that Syrian security agents remained.

The U.S. also contends Syria is turning a blind eye to foreign terrorists and arms flowing over its long border with Iraq; Syria denies the charge.

"Part of the strategy is keeping the rhetoric up to remind the Syrians that they are not out of the box yet and that Lebanese democracy has the full support of the Western powers," said Edward Walker, president of the independent Middle East Institute in Washington.

The administration claims some credit for fostering a new democratic government in Lebanon, largely through a U.N. resolution a year ago. The resolution, sponsored with France, called for immediate Syrian withdrawal and for political self-determination in Lebanon.

Syria initially ignored the U.N. statement, but it later formed a framework to monitor troop withdrawal and free elections.

A new government, largely independent of Syria, took power in Lebanon over the summer. It is saddled with huge debt, other economic problems and sectarian infighting.

Monday's conference was meant to offer debt relief and new pledges of economic help to the government of Prime Minister Fuad Saniora.

The U.S. snubbed Lebanon's increasingly isolated pro-Syrian president, Emile Lahoud, by excluding him from a reception hosted by President Bush. Rice also held a private session with Saad Hariri, the son of the former prime minister, Rafik Hariri, whose assassination in February set off the season of anti-Syrian political unrest.

Under growing pressure, Syria has agreed to allow a U.N. investigator to question members of President Bashar Assad's inner circle about the assassination. Syria denies involvement.
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The Sun Is Rising In The West!Soon It Will Shine on All of Iran!

[Oppenheimer]

Lot is going to happen regarding IAEA meeting this week, UN Sec. Council referal virtually garanteed by Antar's speech.

Even the clueless Washington Post thinks he did more to pull the international community together on this issue than any diplomatic effors possibly could have.

(and by Clueless, I mean they think folks in Iran speak Persian....not Farsi....(chuckle).

As for Syria, Big meeting regarding Lebanon...Lebanese speech in UN GA tommorrow morning...

French today in GA speech affirmed Iran will be going to Sec. Council, majority of members on IAEA board will vote yes, expect more abstentions than "no"votes by non-aligned members.

[Rasker]

It all comes down to what Russia and China will do when push comes to shove on sanctions. They both seem to be acting coy, which makes sense when they are being actively courted. I can't see how either government would benefit by allying itself with a soon-to-be international pariah and outlaw regime. If both did, this would in effect reconstitute the Cold War, but Russia has lost its entire eastern and southern buffer zone, and China is a junkie for US dollars and markets. I'm guessing they both abstain when the time comes to vote on sanctions. And, I'm further projecting that Khuzestan will be internationally occupied under UN auspices and US muscle, and the oil internationally administered in a transparent manner to strangle the regime without depressing the global economy or starving the Iranian people. And when that happens, the regime will fold like a ten yen bill
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The Sun Is Rising In The West!Soon It Will Shine on All of Iran!

[Oppenheimer]

I believe it will happen in two steps...first a stern warning from the Sec. Council to adhear to the Paris agreement and suspend all activity, plus a mandate given to IAEA to inspect anything anytime, anywhere.

Then if IRI fails to comply...sanctions.

There is two more tracks that may independently be brought before the Sec. Council......IRI's support for terrorism, and gross violations of human rights.

"Responsibility to protect" facing it's first practical test, along with the issues of terrorism will not only be a huge test of the will of the international community, but of the credibility of the UN itself.

Seems folks are reluctant to bring this to the next level, but IAEA has a responsibility to do so, under the circumstances.

El Baradai knows he cannot stand in the way of this, at risk of not only his credibility, but that of the IAEA as an institution...

In any case, the IRI has forced the issue, and cannot blame others for the result.

Russia made no mention of the issue in its UN GA speech yesterday...which leads me to believe it will act in a nuetral role on this issue.

China has just helped US obtain a signed agreement with North Korea to abandon its nuclear weapons and programs...so all nation now have positive proof that unified pressure can and will prove effective.

But in IRI's case, it is time to use the Sec. Council to strengthen the IAEA mandate, and put non-proliferation back on track.

So there is more at stake here than just IRI's unwillingness to properly address the issue, and its walking unilaterally out of its agreements.

If the IRI plays the "oil card" or makes good on its threats to go forward with enrichment....you'll see sanctions to the max.

Opec has increased its production ceiling, and there are ways around any threat by IRI to destabilize the market.