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Red Alert-Strait of Hormuz

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PostPosted: Sun Aug 21, 2005 2:18 am    Post subject: Red Alert-Strait of Hormuz Reply with quote


The IRI thugs in a last ditch effort to bring death and destruction to Iran, have been threatening to close the Strait of Hormuz.
It is imperative that the Iranians overthrow this regime before the IRI government provokes an attack on Iran by the West.
The nuclear gridlock and the threats to cut off the flow of oil to the West will soon lead to war!

Ramin Etebar M.D.

Turning to the reports released by BBC and the Wall Street Journal quoting deputy head of Iran's Atomic Energy Organization (IAEO) Mohammad Sai'di as saying that if a military attack is launched on Iran's nuclear installations it will close Hormuz Strait

Iran denies reports on threat to block Hormuz Strait

TEHRAN, Aug. 20 (Xinhuanet) -- Iran on Saturday strongly denied a recent Western media report that its top nuclear official had threatened to block Hormuz Strait if its nuclear standoff could not be settled, the official IRNA news agency reported.

Some Western media, including the Wall Street Journal, had recently quoted Mohammad Saeedi, deputy chief of Iran's Atomic Energy Organization (IAEO), as saying that Tehran would block Hormuz Strait if Iran were dealt with in an illogical and arrogant way on the nuclear issue.

The IAEO denied Saturday in a statement that "foreign newspapers affiliated to certain lobbies have attributed such a statement to Saeedi to misrepresent the region as a trouble spot. "Saeedi himself also said that he had not spoken about Hormuz Strait so far, IRNA said.

Meanwhile, Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesman Hamid-Reza Asefialso told his weekly news briefing that the report about Saeedi's comments has been "imprecise and misinterpreted".

Hormuz Strait, the waterway from the Gulf to the India Ocean, plays a considerable role in the global transportation of oil. The Iranian nuclear standoff has been escalated since Tehran on Aug. 8 defiantly resumed uranium conversion activities in the central city Isfahan and rejected a comprehensive nuclear proposal made by the European Union (EU).

The EU and the International Atomic Energy Agency have urged Iran to reestablish the suspension on its sensitive nuclear activities, which has been rejected by Tehran.

Hormuz Strait


Strait separating the Persian Gulf to the west and the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea to the east. The strait touches Iran to the north and Oman to the south (the peninsula of Musandem).
The length is defined to be about 280 km, and the width is at the smallest only 50 km.
The strait of Hormuz is of great strategical importance, as it is the only sea route where oil from Kuwait, Iraq, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, as well as most of United Arab Emirates can be transported.
Three islands were seized by Iran in 1971: Tunb Kabir, Tunb Saghir, and Abu Musa. These are claimed by the United Arab Emirates, but there have never been any fights over them.

Option Of Closing Off The Shipping Route


In a press conference on December 18, 1997, Iranian deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Maleki said that Iran supported the free flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz, but reserved the option of closing off the shipping route if it is threatened.

World Oil Transit Chokepoints


The following presents information on major world oil transit centers. Over 35 million barrels per day (bbl/d) pass through the relatively narrow shipping lanes and pipelines discussed below. These routes are known as chokepoints due to their potential for closure. Disruption of oil flows through any of these export routes could have a significant impact on world oil prices.

The information in this report is the best available as of March 2004 and is subject to change.

Given the fact that oil consumption occurs mainly in the industrialized West, while oil production takes place largely in the Middle East, former Soviet Union, West Africa, and South America, a significant volume of oil is traded internationally. This oil is moved mainly by two methods: oil tanker ships and oil pipelines. About 2/3 of the world’s oil trade (both crude oils and refined products) moves by tanker. About 43 million barrels per day of that trade is crude oil. Tankers have made global (intercontinental) transport of oil possible; they are low cost, efficient, and extremely flexible.

Oil transported by sea generally follows a fixed set of maritime routes. Along the way, tankers encounter several geographic "chokepoints," or narrow channels, such as the Strait of Hormuz leading out of the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Malacca linking the Indian Ocean (and oil coming from the Middle East) with the Pacific Ocean (and major consuming markets in Asia). Other important maritime "chokepoints" include the Bab el-Mandab passage from the Arabian Sea to the Red Sea; the Panama Canal and the Panama Pipeline connecting the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans; the Suez Canal and the Sumed Pipeline connecting the Red Sea and Mediterranean Sea; and the Turkish Straits/Bosporus linking the Black Sea (and oil coming from the Caspian Sea region) to the Mediterranean Sea."Chokepoints" are critically important to world oil trade because so much oil passes through them, yet they are narrow and theoretically could be blocked -- at least temporarily. In addition, "chokepoints" are susceptible to pirate attacks and shipping accidents in their narrow channels.

Not all tanker trade routes use the same size ship. Each route usually has one size that is the clear economic winner, based on voyage length, port and canal constraints and volume. Thus, crude exports from the Middle East -- high volumes that travel long distances -- are moved mainly by VLCC’s (200,000 to 300,000 dead weight tons) typically carrying over 2 million barrels of oil on every voyage.

Pipelines, on the other hand, are the mode of choice for transcontinental oil movements. Pipelines are critical for landlocked crudes and also complement tankers at certain key locations by relieving bottlenecks or providing shortcuts. Pipelines come into their own in intra-regional trade. They are the primary option for transcontinental transportation, because they are at least an order of magnitude cheaper than any alternative such as rail, barge, or road, and because political vulnerability is a small or non-existent issue within a nation's border or between neighbors such as the United States and Canada. Pipelines are also an important oil transport mode in mainland Europe, although the system is much smaller, matching the shorter distances.

Iran Builds Cruise Missile

From DEBKA-Net-Weekly 143 Jan 30, 2003

February 6, 2004, 8:31 PM (GMT+02:00)

Iran`s threat to Gulf shipping

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary regime last month marked the 25th anniversary of its victory over the Shah by launching a sophisticated missile dubbed Raad and its accompanying advanced radar system designated DM-3b. Minister of defense Rear Admiral Ali Shamkhani led the ceremony in full naval dress uniform.

To subscribe to DEBKA-Net-Weekly click HERE .

The official handout described the radar system as navigating and guiding the combatant missile in its final stage. The medium-range Raad missile is equipped with a self-guidance device. Shamkhani enthused: the two systems manufactured in Iran’s state aviation industry further enhance the capabilities of Iranian armed forces.

What the handout did not reveal was that Raad is no ordinary coastal or shipboard projectile but a cruise missile, capable of halting Personal Gulf shipping by blockading the Hormuz Strait. It can also choke off incoming and outgoing sea traffic via the Shatt al-Arb, Iraq’s only exit point for its oil exports and entrance for its vital imports.

DEBKA-Net-Weekly ’s Gulf sources report launching bases for the new missiles are going up at four places on Iran’s Gulf coast: the northern end at Bandar a-Khomeini opposite the mouth of the Shatt al Arb and facing Kuwait and Bahrain, at Bushehr, site of its nuclear reactor, at the big Bandar Abbas naval base and Revolutionary Guards headquarters, and at Bandar e-Lengeh west of Qeshm Island.

From these installations, Iranian missiles will cover the tanker and merchant ship lanes leading into the Persian Gulf from the Indian Ocean through the Gulf of Aden.

A fifth launching base will be located on the small highly-strategic island of Great Tumb situated just north of the Hormuz Strait at the mouth of the Gulf.

According to our military experts, the locations of the new Raad missile bases betray both aggressive intent and determination to defend Iran’s Gulf shore from assault by warships or hostile marine landings. Iran’s military command appears to be preparing the country’s national defenses for an anticipated American attack in the course of 2004 or early 2005.

“A Very Suitable Spot For Maritime Guerrilla Warfare”


At a lecture at Tehran University on May 23, 2004, Iranian Revolutionary Guards official Dr. Hassan Abassi said: " We have two million Iranians [in the U.S.]. You can be sure that I will recruit from among them guerillas… If America attacks us, don't worry at all. It won't be like what you've seen in Afghanistan and in Iraq. In Southern Iran, we have a 2000-kilometer coast and 36 islands. The average depth of the Persian Gulf is 45-50 meters. The deepest spot there is 94 meters deep, between the islands of Abu Musa and Tonb. This is a very suitable spot for maritime guerrilla warfare. Our special forces are definitely ready for action there.

" Through the Straits of Hormuz, 67% of the world's total energy passes… Take a tanker to the Straits of Hormuz and sink it there… When it lies on the surface, half of it will protrude. It will take five months for it to be salvaged. A rise in oil prices, as you have seen, causes the West fever…" [63]

Last edited by cyrus on Tue Oct 25, 2005 1:53 am; edited 6 times in total
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PostPosted: Sun Aug 21, 2005 11:38 am    Post subject: Iran's threat merits hard line Reply with quote

Iran's threat merits hard line
By Boston Herald editorial staff
Sunday, August 21, 2005


Iran's cocky new hard-line government has raised the stakes in the dispute over its nuclear program with a threat to close the Strait of Hormuz. The Bush administration must make clear that such an action would mean a war to keep open the oil lifeline of the world.

During the Iran-Iraq war of the 1980s, the U.S. Navy patrolled the Arabian Gulf (to which the strait leads) to keep the oil flowing and even sank a few small Iranian vessels. A warning to Iran - which could be delivered quietly at first - might well combine a reminder of those days and a caution that the next time hostilities would not be confined to small boats at sea but would include all of Iran's air force and naval assets.

Through the straits pass tankers from Oman, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Iraq, carrying about one barrel in every four produced on the planet. If Iran means to include its own shipments in the threat, that would make the flow about 30 percent of the world total. Interrupting this for any length of time would amount to ``actual strangulation'' of the world economy, as Henry Kissinger noted more than 30 years ago.

Perhaps emboldened by high oil prices, Mohammad Saeedi, spokesman for Iran's Center for Nuclear Energy, was quoted by The Wall Street Journal as saying, ``We have told the Europeans very clearly that if any country wants to deal with Iran in an illogical and arrogant way we will block the Strait of Hormuz.''

Iran has been negotiating with Britain, France and Germany, who with the United States want Iran to give up plans to manufacture nuclear fuel to remove all possibility that the country, which has lied for almost 20 years about its nuclear activities, could some day build a bomb.

Britain, France and Germany should make clear that the oil threat will not deter them in the least from seeking sanctions in the United Nations Security Council if need be.
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PostPosted: Sun Aug 21, 2005 7:44 pm    Post subject: What Are U.S. Military Options in Iran? Reply with quote

What Are U.S. Military Options in Iran?
Sunday, April 24, 2005
Source URL: http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,154245,00.html

FOX News spoke with two retired generals and a military expert, who outlined some of the options on the table for the Pentagon.

Covert Action: The Bush administration might send CIA agents or commandos to sabotage Iran’s nuclear facilities.

“There were no smoking guns, no fingerprints,” said Walter Russell Mead (search), with the Council on Foreign Relations. “We wouldn’t be faced with that ugly, ugly choice of, we have a war or they get a weapon.”

Naval Blockade: U.S. warships would be sent into the Strait of Hormuz (search) to stop the export of Iranian oil. This would pressure the mullahs to give up enriching uranium and allow intrusive inspections.

One downside is that Iran is OPEC (search)’s second largest oil producer, so a blockade could also put a stranglehold on the economies of many U.S. allies. Other potential problems are that it may not work fast enough and it would leave Iran’s existing nuclear facilities intact.

“So the question is not whether we could do it. We could. The question is, at what cost?” Mead said.

Surgical Strikes: U.S. forces could zero in on Iranian nuclear targets, hitting the country’s highest-risk sites — such as Bushier, Natanz, Arak, Isfahan and a dozen or more others — using cruise missiles launched from land or sea.

“We are moving some aircraft carrier groups into the Persian Gulf as we speak," said retired Army Major Gen. Paul Vallely (search). "They will be positioned to launch any aircraft from the Mediterranean Sea, the Arabian Sea and the Persian Gulf.”

Next, F-117 stealth fighter jets could take out a radar system by firing missiles and anti-aircraft guns at Isfahan or surface-to-air missiles around the Bushier reactor (search). B-2 bombers carrying eight 5,000-pound laser-guided bunker busters would hit buried targets like the Natanz (search) enrichment site or the deep tunnels in Isfahan (search).

Surgical strikes would also aim to hurt Iran's ability to counterattack while limiting civilian casualties, according to Vallely.

“We're not after the population,” he said. “We're not after blowing down bridges anymore. We're trying to disrupt command and control, their ability to use their forces on the ground, their forces in the air, as well as their naval forces. ... Bring them to their knees early. That's the key.”

All-Out Assault: A huge American military effort, involving hundreds of thousands of troops, would be needed to get “boots on the ground.” But the experts FOX News spoke with consider that to be the least likely scenario.

The U.S. military is already stretched thin with its commitments in Afghanistan and Iraq (Iran is four times the size of Iraq, with almost three times as many people). A ground war could kill thousands, maybe tens of thousands, and the cost could run well into the billions. And assembling a broad coalition would be even more difficult than it was for the Iraq war.

“For one thing, the British don’t sound very willing. And let’s face it, without the British, we don’t have a coalition,” Mead said.

Vallely said that while the United States has the ability to launch a major ground invasion, it wouldn’t have to.

“We can take a country down with just our air assets,” he said. “We don't have put boots on the ground all the time if we're after specific targets.”

Iranian Response: Iran has threatened bloody retaliation if attacked, so the Pentagon’s military planners are conducting war games to be prepared for any number of Iranian responses — from attacks on U.S. forces in Iraq to missile strikes on Israel.

“I do not believe that Iran will take on the United States in a major confrontation,” said retired Air Force Gen. Tom McInerney (search).

Without a direct military response from Iran, the possibility exists for an “asymmetrical response” — terror attacks on Americans throughout the world and in the United States.

“Could they use part of the Al Qaeda network to launch a terrorist attack on the United States?" McInerney speculated. "I believe they could. That's probably going to happen to us anyhow. The real question is, will it be a nightmare scenario? … Will it be nuclear?"

The fear of a nuclear response is exactly why the experts FOX News spoke with say the United States must do what it takes to stop Iran.

FOX News' Bret Baier contributed to this report.
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PostPosted: Sun Aug 21, 2005 7:47 pm    Post subject: Iran and the new East-West strategic polarization Reply with quote

Iran and the new East-West strategic polarization

Thursday, May 26, 2005

Dr Assad Homayoun, WorldTribune.com:

The following is the text of the author's address to the Strategy2005 conference in Washington DC., May 25-27. READ MORE

General Dwight D. Eisenhower was quoted as saying in 1951 that there is no region in the world which was geopolitically more important than the Middle East. It was true in 1951 and is even more truly profound today. The outcome of the War on terrorism and the efforts at preventing the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction — particularly nuclear weapons — are key elements which will determine the success or failure of the US policy in the Middle East. The future security of the region is dependent on its successful outcome, and the stability of the region and international order is crucial to the flow of energy which is vital not only for the US but for Europe and Japan as well.

The region was dominated by Great Britain for nearly three centuries. The core of British policy was to keep other foreign powers as well as local forces from changing the balance of power or sharing in the domination. This lasted until World War II when the US gradually and steadily replaced Great Britain as the dominant force in the Middle East, and continued essentially the same policy, with Great Britain as complementary player.

The geopolitical importance of the Middle East emanates from the fact that:

* It is the heartland of Eurasia and the repository of most of the world's energy resources.
* The region is the cross-roads of the international lines of communications and controls four of the seven choke points of the world's most important sea lanes: the Straits of Hormuz, Bab Al-Mandeb, The Suez Canal and the Turkish Straits. (To highlight the importance of this factor. It should be noted that about 17-million barrels of oil or 40 percent of the world's oil exports pass through the Straits of Hormuz every day.)
* The area has been and is the center of rivalry of various ethnic groups and religions.
* It has become fountainhead of international terrorism and the center of the advancement and proliferation of fundamentalist Islam, the center of an accelerating conventional and WMD arms race and the hotbed of terrorism.

Over the past 26 years, the Islamic Republic of Iran has been one of the foremost promoters of international terrorism and Islamic fundamentalism. From the beginning of the Islamic revolution, the ruling clerics appointed themselves as the leaders of revolutionary Islam and made its export a central factor in their foreign policy and undermining US interest in the region. At the time, Ayatollah Khomeini the leader of revolution, directly threatened Arab Leaders such as President Anwar as-Sadat of Egypt, King Hussein of Jordan and the Saudi Arabian King as lackeys of US and infidels. Iran vigorously advande its Shi'ite brand of fundamentalism. It was indeed against the Saudi leadership and Saudi Arabia's Wahabbi Sunni brand of fundamentalism. And Saudi Arabia, to compete with revolutionary Iran, advanced its own version of Wahabbi foundamentalism. This started an unending cycle of unholy competition in the international arena, one result of which was attack on the two symbols of military and economic power in Washington, DC, and New York on September 11, 2001.

Increasingly isolated from its neighbors and the Free World, Iran sought technical assistance from the East. Pakistan helped it with nuclear technology, the People's Republic of China and North Korea with long-range ballistic missile technology. Today it has reached a stage in the domestic development of both technologies that it is a de facto nuclear power and has in its arsenal, long-range missiles capable of delivering warheads, nuclear or conventional, at targets more than 1,500 miles away.

Iran's role, with its history and strong cultural identity, has always been decisive in the region and beyond. It is one of the most — if not the most — important player, and could just as easily be a dominant force for good as it is for evil today.

It borders 15 countries, and has historically influenced the entire region including Central Asia culturally and economically.

Geographically it dominates the northern shores of the Persian Gulf, with command of the Strait of Hormuz, the most important chokepoint in the globe.

It is within easy striking distance of about 50 percent of the world's oilfields: those in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq, Qatar, Bahrain, and the UAE.

Iran itself has enormous proven energy reserves: 12 percent of the world's oil and 20 percent of the world's natural gas reserves. Today we know that oil revenue and its supply are important political and economic weapons.

It also is a bridge between two very important energy zones of Central Asia and the Persian Gulf.

Iran not only actively engaged in terrorism and fundamentalism as fundamental weapons of state, but in all aspects of nuclear research and weapons development. With these tools of irregular and strategic warfare, coupled with its substantial and educated population, its pivotal geographic location, and its energy resources, Iran is the leading country in the Middle East. According to Oil and Gas Journal Iran holds the second-largest reserves of petroleum in the world, so at the very least, any assessment of Iran's geopolitical importance must take into account its role in global energy.

More than this, Iran is a nation-state and civilization of ancient identity and cohesiveness, the fundamental tenets of which found their way into the core of Western civilization over the past three millennia.

It is critical, then, to realize that Iran is a power which — although it has been isolated somewhat, and rendered less capable than its resources, history and people could make it — is in every respect a major factor in global politics. The fact that a great and geostrategically pivotal state has been hijacked by fanatical pseudo-ideologues does not mean that it should be disregarded or under-estimated.
The United States has vital interests in the Middle East. The Middle East is the center of gravity of international politics. Iran is the center of gravity of the Middle East. None of the current problems in the Middle East and the Islamic World can be resolved unless there is change in Iran.

Iran, with its economic and geo-strategic wealth in the hands of an undemocratic, irresponsible theocracy, represents a formidable problem for global stability and a serious threat to world order. That is why Iran must change from theocracy to secular Democracy to contribute to peace and stability of the region and the world's equilibrium.

I strongly believe that it is imperative for Iranians and the international community to help them to get rid of this limited number of rabid ruling clerics before creating a catastrophe which would be detrimental to world peace as well as unity and integrity of Iran.

The Islamic Republic of Iran almost brought over three centuries of Western domination of the Persian Gulf to an end by opening its doors to the People's Republic of China. It has signed extensive commercial, military and strategic agreements with the PRC. After the second inauguration of US President George W. Bush, Chinese Prime Minister Li Zhaoxing flew to Tehran to sign a $100-billion oil and gas deal between China' state owned oil company, Sinopec, and the Iranian Oil Ministry. The Chinese need for oil is increasing every year. Presently China imports two-million barrels of oil every day. In less than two decades China must import more than 10-million barrels daily. That is why China is paying unprecedented attention to the Persian Gulf and cultivating its ties more aggressively with the Persian Gulf states. Despite US sanctions, Chinese companies continue to export military technology for Iran's development of an intermediate-range ballistic missile program.

China is also has completed its new naval port in Gwadar [see East-Asia-Intel.com, May 3 edition: Pakistan admits defense role of China-built Gwadar port, on the Pakistan-Iran border in the Pakistani area of Baluchistan, adjacent to the Strait of Hormuz. This is at the mouth of the Gulf of Oman and creates the opportunity for a Chinese-Iranian stranglehold for the sea lanes of the area. The alliance between Iran and China could have a decisive impact on the balance of power, particularly in the future rivalry between China and the US. It can be said that second cold war has already started between China and US in this region.

Whether for expediency or rivalry, Saudi Arabia is also cultivating closer relations with the PRC. China has sold the CSS-2S intermediate range ballistic missiles to the Saudis. Recently the Saudis have been negotiating the purchased of the CSS-6S, a more advanced ballistic missile system with longer range. This is happening because of the US' involvement and engagement in Iraq and Afghanistan after 9/11.

The international community and most of the Iranian people had hoped that the politics and the policies of Islamic Republic would mature and moderate with time. But the direction the clerics have taken 26 years after the revolution is to the contrary. Their policies and actions have made them a major threat to the future stability and security of the Middle East.

It seems inevitable that Iran will become a fully-fledged and comprehensive military nuclear power. According to many accounts, it has reached the point-of-no-return, even though it might not test a nuclear weapon in the near future. The international community can do little except to try to keep the lines of communications open. There are neither the means nor the will to tackle this question head on.

It is important to note that Iran now has a sophisticated National Command Authority for the conduct of strategic warfare. Defense & Foreign Affairs Daily reported on September 27, 2004: "Iran has … demonstrated a substantial upgrading of its strategic weapons, doctrine and national command authority capabilities, which have profound implications for the US, Israel, and Saudi Arabia. While reports in the open media about “new” Iranian missiles systems having the range to reach London were both incorrect and missed the point, it was clear that the live-fire test of a Shahab-3D intermediate-range ballistic missile on September 18, 2004, during Exercise Ashura-5 reflected a totally new Iranian capability and intent. …

"Ashura-5, the 12th major military exercise by Iran in 18 months, began on September 12, 2004, in the western provinces of Hamedan, Kurdistan and Zanjan, and involved some 12 infantry and mechanized divisions, and included the first operational test of Iran's T-72 tanks. The exercise was commanded by the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, responsible for Iran's missile and nuclear weapons programs, and also included the Basij Islamist paramilitary force. IRGC commander Gen. Yahya Rahim-Safavi said Ashura-5 would include the firing of surface-to-surface missiles and anti-aircraft batteries. The commander did not identify the missiles but said they would be used for what he termed deep-strike warfare."

Other reports have indicated the strength of the nuclear, missile, and strategic policy coordination between Iran and North Korea, a coordination which, because of the interrelationships, must also include China.

What must be done is to push for a political change in Iran by promoting democracy and democratic institutions. Today, the Islamic Republic is a major supporter of terrorism, is the main enemy of the US and Israel, and is emerging as a major ally — perhaps the pivotal ally — of the PRC. A democratic Iran will definitely have the tendency to be pro-Western, progressive, and a stabilizing factor for the entire region.

Azadegan Organization was founded about 25 years ago by a group of Iranian ex-patriots in the US and Western Europe. It is well known in Iran among the intellectuals and the politically active, young and old. From the beginning we have had a very clear view of Iranian politics. We have always maintained that the ruling clerics seem to be inherently evil and are the enemies of the Iranian people. Domestically, they have managed to ruin the economy, lower the standard of living, increase poverty and unemployment to astronomical levels. Torture and corruption are the hallmarks of the regime. Internationally, they have marginalized Iran and isolated it from the world. They have been and are a major destabilizing factor in the region.

Without seriously addressing the issue of the Islamic Administration ruling Iran, it would be very difficult — I dare say almost impossible — to find a sustainable long-term resolution for many of the problems and situations in the Middle East today. Iran plays a direct or indirect role in the conflicts in Iraq, Afghanistan, the Arab-Israeli conflict, in the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, in the export of fundamentalist and radical Islam, and in the financial, logistical, training, planning, and moral support for international terrorism.

The solution in our view is neither diplomacy, as being tried by the EU, nor armed attack, which was reported as one of the options being contemplated by the US and Israel. The only solution in our view is to rely on the people of Iran themselves. The population of Iran is more than 70-million, 52-million of whom is under the age of 25 years. Dire economic conditions have made the youth increasingly restless, insecure and unhappy. Jobless rates are estimated to be upwards of 30 percent and there are no plans in the works to stabilize the conditions. I believe that given leadership, the youth will rise and create a human tsunami which will sweep the corrupt clerical establishment from power and return them to their mosques once and for all.

The President of the United States has repeatedly confirmed his commitment to the freedom of the Iranian people. World public opinion is also against the Islamists now in power, and in favor of the Iranian people. At this time it is vitally important for an Iranian leadership to emerge so that the Iranian people can rise to regain their inherent rights.

As Sun-tzu noted, the acme of skill is to achieve victory without conflict. And the transformation of Iran from being a disruptive factor on the world stage, to being a positive, moderate, and economically powerful player will require “the acme of skill”.

The Azadegan Foundation is in a unique position to provide a sound ground for the concerted and unified effort which is necessary for emergence of the leadership needed to help bring about the transformation of Iran. It is respected and accepted by many. It has the vision, background, experience, knowledge, with untainted record and also contacts — both inside and outside Iran — which will enable it to play a decisive role.

An interesting read.

posted by DoctorZin @ 11:43 PM
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PostPosted: Sun Aug 21, 2005 8:18 pm    Post subject: close Hormuz Strait Reply with quote

'Iran prepared to discuss its N-drives with EU'

Sunday, August 21, 2005 - ©2005 IranMania.com


LONDON, August 21 (IranMania) - Iran's Foreign Ministry Spokesman Hamid-Reza Asefi declared Iran's readiness for holding dialogue with Europe on resumption of atomic activity in Natanz and other nuclear facilities.

Speaking to reporters, he added that Iran will not accept any condition for starting negotiation on the issue and that discussion about Isfahan Uranium Conversion Facility (UCF) is already over, IRNA reported.

Justifying the performance of Iran's nuclear team, he noted that the new Secretary of Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) Ali Larijani will undoubtedly continue the usual policy hoping for his success.

Dismissing the Europeans claim about Iran's violation of Paris Agreement, Asefi said that according to the document, the activities of Isfahan nuclear facilities were suspended voluntarily and have been resumed voluntarily.

"Given that Europeans interpret the Paris Agreement unilaterally, we would like to recommend them to review it once more to understand that they themselves have violated the agreement.

Meanwhile, Asefi called on Europeans to review their proposal to Iran once more to notice that it contains no positive point.

"Iran has gone through European's proposal to Iran and has found no remarkable point in it," added the official.

Concerning the rumors about revising the Europeans proposal to Iran, he said that no definite scheme has been brought up on the issue so far.

"If the Europeans intend to draw up a new proposal, Iran's rights should be included in it. Then we are prepared to receive such a proposal," he added.

About the claims of the terrorist Mujahedin Khalq Organization (MKO) on Iran's nuclear activity, he said that this is not unprecedented, as the terrorist group occasionally makes comments about some issues.

"I believe that some of the European countries which have given refuge to MKO members are to be blamed, given that on various occasions they mislead them and cause problems for the host countries," he added.

Turning to the reports released by BBC and the Wall Street Journal quoting deputy head of Iran's Atomic Energy Organization (IAEO) Mohammad Sai'di as saying that if a military attack is launched on Iran's nuclear installations it will close Hormuz Strait, he said that the piece of news has been imprecise and misinterpreted.

In response to a question about some differences of opinions on the process of drawing up the Constitution in Iraq, he said that Iran will support any measure taken in line with Iraq's unity and integration.

He declared that Iranian officials believe that Iraq's territorial integrity and integration.

"Any move aiming to raise question on integrity of Iraq and its disintegration is rejected by Iran and will not be tolerated," added Asefi.
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PostPosted: Sat Sep 10, 2005 12:18 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

SunTzu was a brilliant tactician, and his precepts are still studied in military acadamys worldwide, but a lot has changed since 600 BC.
What folks who talk "surgical strike" don't really understand about the paradime shift in military thought the US has undergone since 9/11, and even before, with its force restructuring program, is that a "Clintonesque" surgical strike, like in 98 on bin Ladin's training camps, or Saddam's suspect facilities is no substitute for unconditional surrender, and the eradication of the regime in question.

IF, and I say IF IT COMES TO HOSTILITIES, you can count on a couple "boomers" parked off Iran's coast, just in case they try something really stupid with Chem, Bio, or Nuclear WMD, and they will be warned of the consequences just as Saddam was prior to the start of hostilities.
The mullahs will be given notice to leave, turn over the reins of power to the people, and pack bags in a three choice scenario...Get out of town, get busted, or get buried. They won't get the chance to block the strait, count on it.

Saddam obviously got busted, and he sits in jail, the Taliban and al- quaida got chased out of town, after most of them got buried.

But we are far from the point of that last option being taken, I think it is far more logical that what SMCCDI has proposed will be enacted first, and the people will be given the chance with a hell of a lot of support. It will require the common cause effort of all oppositioon groups to put differences aside and save them for post-regime debate if you folks are to succeed.

Depending on how THAT goes, in worst case, the international community would be morally obligated to prevent a bloodbath, and then military pressure would be either applied, or implemented in totality, with no let up, until the regime was toast.

As far as the inherent nationalism that exists, and the question of external liberation, if done in this fashion, giving the people the chance to do it for themselves with moral and financial support for civil disobedience methodology...it would be a much different animal coming to liberate them if they get in serious trouble of being crushed by the regime, than if the US/Coalition were to simply bypass this option.

For one, it respects the people, empowering them to effect change, and two, if help is needed in this way, it will most likely be welcomed, rather than opposed in that circumstance. Coordinated effort is the key.

That is why this letter is probably going to turn a lot of heads of state toward being actively supportive of the Iranian people. That and the fact that it just makes too damned much sense to ignore......on all levels.

One thing's for sure, doing nothing is not an option for the international community.

Nice work SMCCDI....way to kick the mullahs where it will hurt the most!
Right in their god-damned self rightious pride!

Indeed we will see....I think next Wednesday will pretty much be a day to remember...



The "Student Movement Coordination Committee for Democracy
in Iran" (SMCCDI)

September 7, 2005

The Honorable John Bolton,
United States Ambassador to the UN
U.S. Department of State
2201 C Street NW
Washington, DC 20520

Via Federal Express & Fax (202) 647-0244

Dear Mr. Ambassador,

On behalf of the membership of the "Student Movement
Coordination Committee for Democracy in Iran" (SMCCDI), and
the people of Iran who have striven so long for freedom of
speech, worship, assembly, a free press, civil liberties,
woman's rights, the application of the Universal
Declaration of Human Rights, and the rule of law; We
congratulate you on your nomination as America's Ambassador
to the UN.

Comes now this Iranian opposition group, to apprise you of
the facts, the conclusions and suggestions we have been
given to put forward herein this letter, as context to the
2005 UN Summit, and the pending address to the UN of the
Islamic Republic regime's appointed president, Mahmoud
Ahmadinejad, with the gravest concern for the welfare and
common good of all people, and generations to come...

"In Larger Freedom"

The body of evidence compiled over the long history of
the Islamic Republic's systemic methodology of torture,
political repression and murder of journalists and
dissidents; crimes against humanity including the past and
current crackdown on ethnic and religious minorities, and
"troublemakers" (i.e.: political dissidents of the regime);
applying a Gender Apartheid policy and sexual
discrimination against women; sponsoring and officially
engaging in terrorism (internally and externally), by its
leadership and proxy; suppression of the press, closing of
TV and newspapers as well as confiscation of satellite
dishes, the arrest of "bloggers" and the shutting down of
internet sites, arbitrary arrest and lack of "due process";
the denial of requested information to the UN Commission on
Human Rights (and its sub committees), the denial of access
and information to the IAEA, false declaration to various
UN committee; The failure to uphold the tenants of the UN
Charter signed by Iran in 1948 (in multiple aspects,
consistently and premeditative, and the long history of
denial, subterfuge, bribery, and false public statements on
the record in the UN we believe must be addressed in
totality, before the Security Council, along with other
issues and recommendations brought before the council
regarding this regime, to obtain a holistic solution to a
common threat.

We understand that the UN Commission on Human Rights
mandate covers only one aspect of the larger picture that
must be addressed, and while the "1503 procedure" states, "
No communication will be admitted if it runs counter to the
principles of the Charter of the United Nations or appears
to be politically motivated." and further states, "As a
rule, communications containing abusive language or
insulting remarks about the State against which the
complaint is directed will not be considered."

We believe it is essential that you and the Commission
understand that SMCCDI's intent is not "politically
motivated" in seeking greater freedom for Iran's people,
nor does any member aspire to become a representative of
any new political structure that may exist in a future free
Iran. It is important for us that you and the UN understand
the nature and precepts of SMCCDI as well as the long road
that has brought the opposition in general to the
conclusions and suggestions expressed herein.

While the 1503 procedure states that no "insulting
language" be used, the truth is different from opinion, and
evil is as evil does. Therefore, while the Islamic regime
will no doubt claim insult and injury to its reputation,
one must in all honesty; call it like one sees it being
manifest in action. Using logic over emotionalism, truth
over viewpoint, and ethics over all.

This is one of the reasons we welcome your tenure as UN
Ambassador, as you have the reputation of manifesting
tangible results, whether it be on UN reform, proliferation
of WMD, or state sponsors of terrorism. We wish to inform
you as a courtesy that a copy of this letter will be hand
delivered to the door of the UN, on September 14th, for
your kind inspection, while thousands of freedom loving
Iranians outside the UN protesting this regime cheer you on
as well as cheering on other free nations' representatives
as measures are taken to address the theocratic regime's
abysmal activities before the UN general assembly.

As you may face the incarnation of boycott and the
regime's answer to the aspirations of the Iranian people's
desire to self determination in the form of an evil man who
has come to power illegitimately; who comes to usurp the
chair of membership in the UN which is by right the chair
belonging to the Iranian people; Usurped by an unpopular
regime that has never held credence to the premise of the
UN charter, or the Universal Declaration of Human Rights in
word or deed; we urge you, and all free nation's
representatives to address this issue of , and consider
wisely the matter of the regime's membership, as a matter
of UN reform.


Our opposition movement (SMCCDI) is bound by a charter
formed on principals such as; Human Rights, Democracy,
separation of church and states, and free markets. We
believe these principals represent the most fair and
efficient means for humanity to realize its potential.

Ultimately, no repressive, intolerant regime can withstand
the spread of these ideals.
The Islamic Republic regime currently in power in Iran or
any Islamic variances that may exist there in the future
are no exception. By staying true to these values our
people's triumph is absolutely, positively, and undeniably

It is these precepts voiced by Secretary General Kofi
Annan; "Today, our challenge -- as it was for the founders
of the United Nations -- is to pass on to our children a
brighter legacy than that bequeathed to us. We must build
a future as envisioned in the UN Charter -- a future in
larger freedom"; that the Iranian opposition, and the
democracy movement in Iran is based upon, referencing the
Universal Declaration on Human Rights, so often among the
various opposition groups over these past years.

The horror of this evil regime's hypocrisy, and methodical
atrocities can only be likened to a daily Auschwitz for the
stain it brings on the honor of those who appease and
support and lengthen the life span of this barbaric and
tyrannical regime through silence, economic incentive,
"engagement" and illusion. Blind or not as they may be of
what is taking place in our country, or the intent of the
regime in many aspects that threaten the security of the
international community.
Nor can the international community, or any member of any
government that holds in their heart the values of freedom
continue to turn their back on these long standing issues,
and still call themselves human. Or allow this regime,
along with other human rights abusers to block necessary UN
reform of the human rights commission, or the draft
measures in reference on "responsibility to protect".

As a "test case" for UN reform, the Islamic Republic
regime qualifies in every conceivable way.

It is our hope placed in trust that you (as have the US
President and his Secretary of State and many members of US
Congress in the past) will illuminate the plight of our
people that have struggled to shrug off the oppressors and
theocratic chains which have bound the Iranian people for
so long. Chains which have silenced the voice of the people
in utterance, and stilled them with overwhelming force.
Chains denying the Iranian people a better future for our
children, and our children's children for over a generation
in this process

Speaking in regard to "International Woman's Day, March 8,
2005" the US Secretary of State said, "Freedom, the
protection of fundamental human rights, economic
opportunity and prosperity, equality and the rule of
law...these are all elements of the democratic process.
Women are integral to the process of building responsible
governments and democratic institutions. Women's
participation and empowerment at all levels of society will
be key to moving these new democracies forward."

It is the women, who represent a large part of the
opposition and will make a major contribution through their
degree of knowledge and political and civil maturity to the
democratic and peaceful revolution we seek to manifest, as
well as to a future democratic Iran. We cannot carry such
baggage or the individuals who continue to deny women their
place in society in this process of regaining our freedom
and their equality in the process.

Mr. Ambassador,

When one considers the IRI in totality, the abysmal human
rights record, its long-standing support for terrorism,
it's WMD programs in violation of signed agreements; logic
dictates that with or without referral by the IAEA, this
ideological and unelected regime should not just be
sanctioned, but booted out of the UN altogether for gross
violation of the UN charter, which the Iran Nation is a
signatory to, believing it to be criminally negligent for
any nation to support the continuance and aspirations of
the Islamic Republic system one day longer, and remaining
"seized of the matter." As Churchill put it, "Given the
choice between war and dishonor, Chamberlain chose dishonor
and got war."

To this point, the only leader of free nations who's had
that alternate vision of an Iran existing within the
community of nations..."in larger freedom", and had the
guts to voice the option is President George W. Bush...."..
and to the Iranian people I say tonight, as you stand for
your own liberty, America stands with you." The man
presented possibilities to people in so doing, as a
president will on occasion.

Those words of hope to our people must now be joined in
chorus among all free nations, standing in solidarity with
the tenets and premise of "in larger freedom". The freedom
from fear, from want, the hope to raise our children in
dignity and in religious freedom in a nation that is truly
secular and representative of the people's will.

We shall see if the UN honors the precepts of its founding
Charter, whether the EU, Russia, China and India will
continue to trade and negotiate with a tyrannical and
terrorist regime, and whether the UN membership comes
together in solidarity of it's founding principals to honor
the words of President Bush to the Iranian people.

If the UN cannot see fit to honor the tenets of its
founding by enforcing its Charter on members signatory to
it, we in the Iranian opposition will briefly bow our heads
in shame being witness to this, but only briefly as time is
short, and our heads will rise looking only forward, as our
feet continue to trod the path of freedom in process,
whether the international community supports us or not. But
whether this popular movement is successful, or crushed,
depends now upon free nation's support for the aspirations
of Iranian liberty.

It is self-evident that the international community cannot
live with terrorists, nor terrorist regimes in its midst.
There is but one solution to common security in larger

To prevent war and/or civil war, the Islamic regime must
be disavowed by the UN as not legitimately representative
of the People of Iran, and held accountable for its
Nor can its newly unelected leader, self confessed to
having fired coup de grace bullets into political prisoners
after being tortured; under investigation for hostage
taking and other murders outside of the territory of Iran;
claim any "diplomatic immunity", nor be afforded any claim
by the regime under the rules of UN membership, nor be
granted same by the UN, or host nation, if the
investigation warrants prosecution.

We ask very simply that America, and every democratic
member nation of the United Nations, and their
representatives and leaders stand united with the Iranian
people now. Not as diplomats or representatives neither of
nations, nor even as members of the UN per se, but simply
as Humans. For this, and the hope of liberty and justice is
what binds all people, and the UN together in unity, under
the Universal Declaration of Human Rights and the premise
of the UN Charter.

Indeed, the Islamic Republic regime is engaged in terror,
torture and atrocity on a daily basis, and this
illegitimate regime dares to call itself Democratic, an
advocate of human rights, and protector of the oppressed
throughout the region. A cruel joke added onto the injury
to our nation's pride and heritage, as reportedly the
regime via a dam, will submerge the founder of Persia,
Cyrus the Great's tomb and the archeological sites of
Pasargad and Persepolice under water.
The only way our people can regain our honor, civil
liberties and the trust of the world for a WMD-free Iran
that seeks to provide a safer future for the world and
adheres to the Universal Declaration of Human Rights is by
providing us, the people of Iran, the support for our
legitimate aspirations of liberty necessary to restore hope
to the land that Cyrus the Great brought Democracy to over
2500 years ago.

Those ancient precepts regarding freedom of worship,
individual right to own property, freedom from slavery,
representative government in a democratic "federalist"
government that respected the states rights to determine
local laws so long as they were consistent with the
inherent rights of the people, respecting territorial
integrity in the process, have proven themselves over time
and among many cultures. The UN has a replica of this vital
document on display in the entrance lobby. It is as if to
us, the regime intends to submerge the very tenets that
civilization was founded upon, honored and recognized in
the UN, on display. This is not just Persia's heritage
that is at stake, but mankind's, and we hope that a
resolution will be tabled and mandated to protect and
preserve this historical legacy for future generations.


With the firm unanimous voice of the UN, and the pressure
that may be applied "in greater freedom" The UN may honor
the precepts of its founding principals, and reform itself
into an effective, cohesive, transparent instrument for the
common good of all men and women. But if not starting with
the "test case" the regime poses, where will, and when
will, UN reform becomes manifest in action and intent, "
being seized of the matter"? All reform must have some
gage or measure to assess its merit; we propose this as a
means to that end.

1. Implementation of full international economic and
military sanctions on the Islamic Republic regime via UN
Security Council resolution based on human rights, support
for terrorism, and this to be tabled with or without IAEA
board recommendation on the nuclear threat the theocracy
poses. These two issues alone should be viewed as
circumstance the world cannot turn it's back upon, at risk
of civilization itself.

Such measures should include coordination with oil
producing nations to ensure stable world supply while
sanction persists, as well as the halting of any and all
arms transfers to the Islamic Republic regime via the
Proliferation Security Initiative.

2. Full diplomatic sanction and closing of Islamic
republic's embassies worldwide, removal and deportation of
regime representatives, their agents and spies from all
Diplomatic sanction by the UN, revocation of UN membership
and removal of representation from this international forum
till such time as a legitimate interim government can be
established in Iran.

Note: We ask that concerns regarding lack of consular
functions as a result of this action be cooperatively
addressed, so as to continue to allow emergency visas to be
issued. (i.e. family emergencies, etc.) It may be possible
to retain the minimum consular functions, under tight
supervision, but they are well known in their recruiting
of, and issuing visa to potential martyrs and terrorists.

3. Freezing of any and all financial assets of the Islamic
Republic system, current and former leadership, and
corporate interests worldwide, till such time as a new
interim government can be established.

As well as allocation of portions of these assets now to
legitimate non-violent opposition groups inside and outside
Iran, to provide the tangible support needed while civil
disobedience becomes manifest in action. Only in this way
can this action be self-sustaining till it succeeds. Poland
couldn't have become free without support, nor can we, as
this is much to expect of a people under the boot of
repression for over a generation.

4. Repeated statements by world leaders publicly calling
for the leadership of the Islamic Republic regime to step
down peacefully, and to relinquish the government to the
hands and will of the Iranian people, and a UN monitored
"direct" referendum to choose a legitimate, representative,
secular government structure.

5. The coordinated post-regime rebuilding of vital social
institutions and infrastructure of democracy should be
implemented now in preparation, along with he training of
judges, civil servants, police, etc. The Iranian exile
community can provide some of the talent initially, and
there are many more inside Iran supporting the opposition
who will answer the call to service as the situation
permits. This will speed up the post-regime stabilization
process, and greatly enhance institutional development in
the interim government, and constitutional process.

In addition, while SMCCDI does not speak for other groups
in the opposition, we believe it is vital for our efforts
to become coordinated in the formation of a working group
among leaders of opposition groups, in conjunction with
free nation's representatives to help facilitate and
coordinate all of the above measures in a roundtable "Forum
for the Future" of Iran.

The coordination of economic and military sanction,
freezing of assets, closing of embassies, banishment from
the UN General Assembly and other UN related institutions,
such as UNESCO, and other non-violent measures as may be
found worthy under international law will be overwhelming
to the Islamic Republic of Iran, providing solid legitimate
purpose and support among the people of Iran to effect
change from within.

Mr. Ambassador,

We have striven in our legitimate aspirations for liberty
for over two decades, and often frustrated as the pace of
those aspirations seem to be like that of traveling on the
back of a snail. The vast majority has therefore concluded
that any real democratic reform though legitimate election
or national referendum on the people's choice for a secular
political structure in Iran cannot be possible so long as
this evil ideological regime continues in power. Nor can
the international community relegate terrorism to the
dustbin of history while this regime remains in power.

While our aspirations include taking our future into our
own hands, we are convinced after this long in a most
pragmatic way, that those aspirations cannot be obtained in
isolation or silence, we need the entire international
community firmly by our people's side in word and deed if
the agenda the US president has laid out for global freedom
is to become manifest in Iran.

This noble endeavor in common cause does not require
military intervention, nor do we ask for, or seek this in
any form. The method of civil disobedience has a long
history of painful success throughout history, and with
international support will serve to liberate our people
from tyranny and the world from the blind ambitions of the
theocratic regime in a rather short period of time, if they
are implemented in full now, and in a coordinated and
simultaneous manner.

We in the opposition movement see the strong two-faced
diplomacy the Islamic Republic regime is engaged in, that
has not only caused nations to appease the regime with
offers of economic incentive, but that has caused others to
support their blind ambitions, through various means,
including silence and abstention of action on Human Rights
within the various mechanisms of the UN, sale and smuggling
of arms and WMD technology, and economic trade.

We see the effects of this diplomacy and blatant
propaganda on some members of the US Congress, various
governments and international think tanks, as well as the
IAEA. We see the confusion in policy that has been proposed
by former members of various governments, as well the many
cases in which the UN Commission on Human Rights failed in
the past to be unanimous in their condemnation of the
Islamic Republic regime's human rights record and we
strongly urge you and other free nations' representatives
to address their perceptions in this most grave and
dangerous illusion of providing "political benefit of the
doubt" that some members have apparently been following, as
soon as possible.

We, the membership of the Iranian opposition, among all
the various groups have no doubt of the regime's intent, or
continued activities as described and documented over a
long period of time. There are no "rogue elements" of the
regime involved in the transport of shaped munitions into
Iraq, no "rogue elements" of the regime training martyrs
for terrorism operations, recruiting them through public
advertisement, no "rogue elements" committing crimes
against humanity among our people. No "rogue element"
harboring al-quaida. These are fully supported by,
instructed by, and funded by the Islamic Republic of Iran
in whole, not in part, nor independent of its appointed
president's knowledge, and done so by mandate of the
Guardian Council.

Failure to address these grave issues now will be a
dereliction of the UN's founding mandate, and those member
states that fail to recognize this must answer to history.

In conclusion Sir,

It would therefore be in our opinion (reflective of the
1503 procedures), criminally negligent for members of the
UN Commission on Human Rights, and the UN Security Council
to fail to act on the body of evidence regarding security
issues and threats the IRI poses at this time to the
international community and of systematic human rights
abuse (in all aspects) by the Islamic Republic regime; due
to "political considerations" within their respective
nations who's Human Rights records are not the best, or
economic factors in trade with the regime playing a part in
debate, threat of veto, or abstention of moral

It would be quite logical therefore were the UN to
disavow any vote that was deemed "politically motivated" in
the Security Council, calling for a two-thirds majority
vote in the General Assembly to implement any resolution
not achieved in SC decision, along with GA voting on ending
any and all participation, membership and communication
from the Islamic Republic regime (other than answering to
charges brought), for the regime itself is in consistent
and conscious violation of multiple aspects of the UN
Charter, and the Universal Declaration on Human Rights that
the UN is founded upon.

It is for these reasons described herein (as well as the
fact that while Iran is an original signatory to the UN
charter, the current regime flaunts the tenets and is not
legitimately in an of itself, a signatory to it.), that we
have suggested revocation of UN membership through the UN
General Assembly by a two-thirds majority vote as may be
done under the governing rules of the UN, until such time
as a new interim government is established in its place
which will re-ratify Iran's adherence to the UN Charter and
rejoin the family of nations in good standing.

Whereas: "a consistent pattern of gross and reliably
attested violations of human rights and fundamental
freedoms exists." in multiple source documentation
independent of this letter.

Whereas: "communications may be submitted by individuals
or groups who claim to be victims of human rights
violations or who have direct, reliable knowledge of

Whereas: "each communication must describe the facts, the
purpose of the petition and the rights that have been
violated." And we have striven to do so.

Whereas: "domestic remedies have been exhausted", and it
is convincingly apparent that "solutions at the national
level have been ineffective" - "over an unreasonable length
of time."

We therefore respectfully ask that this letter also be
taken in this context as such a petition to provide proper
perspective to you, the Whitehouse, the UN member states,
President of the General Assembly Ping as well as to
Secretary General Annan on the issues we have addressed
herein with the gravest concern for the welfare of

Regarding the security risk the regime poses to its
citizens through its WMD programs and intent in acquiring
this capability. We believe this too, constitutes a
violation of our basic civil liberties (having no voice in
the matter) and poses an unacceptable risk to the
population of Iran and the region through potential and
perhaps unavoidable catastrophic conflict, if the UN does
not act accordingly to prevent further tragedy now.

With gratitude

On behalf of SMCCDI,

Aryo B. Pirouznia (Movement's Coordinator)

5015 Addison Circle #244 Addison, TX 75001 (USA)
Tel: +1 (972) 504-6864; Fax: +1 (972) 491-9866;
E.Mail: smccdi@daneshjoo.org
www.daneshjoo.org ; www.iranstudents.org
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PostPosted: Sun Sep 11, 2005 12:43 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Before folks read the following news item, one should understand that planning for worst-case scenarios is done on a regular basis, thus my reference to "boomers" (Missile Subs) above was not mere speculation, but a distinct probability. It is well known that the IRI has a developed bio-weapons capability, as well as chem. Perhaps a smuggled nuke or two purchased on the black market in all probability. Lots of contact with North Korea over the years....

Unfortunately, as frightening or disturbing as this article may be to any Iranian, you have only the regime to thank for the risk it places the Iran Nation in, and the last paragraph of the SMCCDI letter above clearly defines those parameters.

Last thing I wish to see is the regime put my nation in the position of implementing this planning, and while I strongly urge the opposition to get its collective act together to meet the threat the IRI poses to you before it's too late, the following will put a big fat exclamation mark on SMCCDI's assesment:


Pentagon Considers Nuclear Deterrent for Terrorists
Saturday, September 10, 2005

WASHINGTON — A Pentagon planning document being updated to reflect the doctrine of pre-emption declared by President Bush (search) in 2002 envisions the use of nuclear weapons to deter terrorists from using weapons of mass destruction against the United States or its allies.

The "Doctrine for Joint Nuclear Operations," which was last updated 10 years ago, makes clear that "the decision to employ nuclear weapons at any level requires explicit orders from the president."

But it says that in a changing environment "terrorists or regional states armed with WMD will likely test U.S. security commitments to its allies and friends."

"In response, the U.S. needs a range of capabilities to assure friend and foe alike of its resolve," says the 69-page document dated March 15 and posted on a Pentagon web site.

The draft is still being circulated among the various services, field commanders, Pentagon lawyers and Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld's (search) office.

Its existence was initially reported by The Washington Post in Sunday editions.

"A broader array of capability is needed to dissuade states from undertaking ... courses of action that would threaten U.S. and allied security," the draft says. "U.S. forces must pose a credible deterrent to potential adversaries who have access to modern military technology, including WMD and the means to deliver them."

It says "deterrence of potential adversary WMD use requires the potential adversary leadership to believe the United States has both the ability and will to pre-empt or retaliate promptly with responses that are credible and effective."

It says "this will be particularly difficult with nonstate (non-government) actors who employ or attempt to gain use of WMD. Here, deterrence may be directed at states that support their efforts as well as the terrorist organization itself.

"However, the continuing proliferation of WMD (search) along with the means to deliver them increases the probability that someday a state/nonstate actor nation/terrorist may, through miscaluation or by deliberate choice, use those weapons. In such cases, deterrence, even based on the threat of massive destruction, may fail and the United States must be prepared to use nuclear weapons if necessary."

It notes that U.S. policy has always been purposely vague with regard to when the United States would use nuclear weapons and that it has never vowed not to be the first to use them in a conflict.

One scenario for a possible nuclear pre-emptive strike in the draft would be in the case of an "imminent attack from adversary biological weapons that only effects from nuclear weapons can safely destroy."

The Bush administration is continuing to push for development of an earth-penetrating nuclear warhead, but has yet to obtain congressional approval.

However, the Senate voted in July to revive the "bunker-buster" program that Congress last year decided to kill.

Administration officials have maintained that the U.S. needs to try to develop a nuclear warhead that would be capable of destroying deeply buried targets including bunkers tunneled into solid rock.

But opponents said that its benefits are questionable and that such a warhead would cause extensive radiation fallout above ground killing thousands of people. And they say it may make it easier for a future president to decide to use the nuclear option instead of a conventional weapon.

The Senate voted 53-43 to include $4 million for research into the feasibility of a bunker-buster nuclear warhead. Earlier this year, the House refused to provide the money, so a final decision will have to be worked out between the two chambers.
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PostPosted: Sun Sep 11, 2005 4:31 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Unfortunately, as frightening or disturbing as this article may be to any Iranian, you have only the regime to thank for the risk it places the Iran Nation in

Unfortunate as it maybe, we also have the western powers who supported khomeini, the fascist butcher into power, and kept their mouth shut while he carried out numerous massacres, to thank for this mess!

thank you for the gift of Green Belt which has been choking our nation to death for the past 26 years while EU3 have been piling up profits mixed with blood and encouraging the islamo-fascist regime to aquire nuclear technology.

Thank you for ousting the most democratic government in the region and replacing it with the most fascist backward regime in modern history.

what else? should we also thank you for the attacks too? allow us this much to leave that part to your own creation: the islamo-fascists.
Paayande Iran

Last edited by Liberty Now ! on Sun Sep 11, 2005 6:05 am; edited 3 times in total
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PostPosted: Sun Sep 11, 2005 4:55 am    Post subject: EU IS THE KEY, NOT BOMBS Reply with quote

honestly, what does this guy takes us for?

we're going to nuke you and you're going to keep your mouth shut and take the hit? as much as we hate to kill you, the ayatollahs are pulling our legs!

same excuse you have for toppling the Shah: as much as we liked him, but the EU3 made it clear that islamo-fascist would be a much better option (Green Belt or the empowerment of the Islamo-Fascist network of Terror).

If Americans buy that crap doesn't mean you can sell it elsewhere.
besides, I assure you that they will get to know the truth once you officially start your nuke campaign. so why don't you? make it official.

it's some twenty some years past the hostage taking crisis; where have you been all this time?

you should have thought of all this way back then! when you sent "Cake & Colt" to that biritsh thug khomeini.

for 26 years the islamo-fascists you've helped to create were butchering us, and you've watched in silence and content!

after all those massacres, and after EU/UK have rebuilt their economy on "Lucrative deals" with terrorist butchers of Tehran, and sold them WMD & Nuclear Technology, now you show up with your bombs?

so that was the plan, eh? an agreement with them to solve their problems while we're being kept hostage in our own country. because it would be such a shame if it wasn't an agreement. it would mean that you've been seriously tricked by UK/EU. so which one was it?

I think both Amrican and Iranian nations are entitled to the bottom line truth on that, since it will soon have even greater consequences for both.

you can't go around throw bombs at all your problems, or you're bound to create so many enemies on Earth, that soon you'll have to leave the Planet to be safe!

your problem is not in Iran, it's elsewhere! partly in your own policies and historic mistakes. and part of it is in following the EU/ UK into the next Trap/coup/ War (the historic pattern).

what are you going to do about that? why not fix that problem first?
or are you going to procrastinate on that one until it's too late as well?

how about thinking about the consequences first, rather than creating a bigger mess and having to throw bigger bombs and more nukes around!












Paayande Iran

Last edited by Liberty Now ! on Sun Sep 11, 2005 2:25 pm; edited 1 time in total
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PostPosted: Sun Sep 11, 2005 10:45 am    Post subject: Reply with quote


Whether you can grasp the truth remains to be seen.

Posted by Toofaan

Posted: Sun Aug 28, 2005 12:41 pm


The story of so called "coup de ta" of 1953 has been subject of so many interpretations that the actual truth about that has gone unnoticed by most of Iranian people! There has been a lot of talks about American and British elements and interests but almost never any attention paid to the Iranian elements and interests in that event!

This matter that British had a major role in getting Americans involved in the events of 1953 against late Dr. Mosadeq has been talked about many times but, believing that nothing would happen against the interests of our nation if there was no change in the government at that time, is something that need to examine more carefully!

either way, 1953 is part of history now and even though knowing the truth will be helpful in avoiding repeat of the mistakes but confusing ourselves over that issue will definitely have a reverse effect!

A lot of LIES have been said about 1953, some intentional and some emotional! most of the intentional lies come from those who wanted to confuse the issue (CIA, MI6.. and even some of those who were friends of Dr. Mosadeq at that time) and the rest is just caused by the sick hate towards the Pahlavis who had a lot of enemies inside the country (within jebhe melli and tudeh party..etc...) and also outside (Russians, British who were looking for opportunity to restore kadjars in Iran and some of American democrats).

There is no doubt that the anomosity towards Pahlavis from jebhe melli and tudeh party were not just emotional but for the most important part, they were based on their political ambitions! Jebhe melli's old leadership showed their preference of following their hateful emotions against Pahlavis in the most sensetive times of our nation's history by getting close to the most vicious enemy of our nation, khomeini, and providing him with their support! anyways...

The events of 1953 in removal of late Dr. Mosadeq from power was first and foremost, initiated by Mosadeq himself! His refusal to obey the constitution upon which he was appointed as prime minister was the most crucial mistake in the history of democracy in our country! That triggered other actions which created a choatic condition through out the nation that could have resulted in take over of tudeh communist party in our country and turning our nation into another province of soviet union! tudeh party and soviet union, thanks to wide spread influence of tudeh party in the military and oil sector, were ready for this take over which would result in total destruction of jebhe melli (that was infilterated by tudeh party) and the rest of nationalisti groups and most probably killing of Dr. Mosadeq himself and many others (based on the experience and nature of take over by communist parties in other countries)!

according to CIA documents, Kermit Rosevelt, had already reported the total failure of "operation ajax" to Americans and British based on what they knew of their own plan but, to their surprise, next 24-48 hours turned to bring up results which they did not expect! A group of Iranian patriotic officers who supported the newly appointed prime minister, in a swift operation with support of many Iranians of all social classes, could avoid the disaster of communist take over in our country under cover of nationalist sentiments! late Dr. Mosadeq paid the price for his mistake of ignorance towards the constitution and the ill will of leftist elements on his side (like Dr. Fatemi whose sickening anomisity towards Pahlavis was well known through his insults and vulgar language) who had infilterated jebhe melli, and the result was against our young democracy and in favour of authritarian rule of late Shah who could not trust anyone no more!

Dear friends! even though British, Russians and Americans.. etc... have been meddling in the affairs of our nation, we should not blame anyone but ourselves for what has happened in our country! There is always someone who is after something that we have! there is always someone who wants to do something against our interests! It's upto us not to give them the opportunity and the chance! an ignorant nation will always blame others for their problems!



Posted byLiberty Now !

Posted: Sun Aug 28, 2005 3:56 pm


oh wow. you said all that to call my nation ignorant?

could have just blurt it out, like your other cia-agent friends here.

go cheer for an american attack on iran now.
Paayande Iran


Posted by Toofaan

Posted: Sun Aug 28, 2005 5:34 pm Post subject:


First, I like to apologise for the many typos which I did not have a chance to edit!
secondly, I like to suggest to our friend "Liberty Now" to take it easy! I can see that you are in a hurry to get your "liberty" but being in hurry, I have to say, is not good enough! you need to get into the habit of "reading more carefully" before anything else! and I must remind you that knowing about your own weaknesses is the "key", not ignoring them! have a good one!


Posted by Saman

Posted: Tue Aug 30, 2005 5:12 am Post subject:


A very wise post by Toofan indeed.
Zoroaster's philosophy: Good thoughts, good words, good deeds.
Pâyandeh bâd xâke Irân e mâ!


Meanwhile, "back at the ranch"....(chuckle).....liberty asks:

"honestly, what does this guy takes us for? "

Well, who is "us" above Liberty?

Toofan's "typo" was the use of "nation" where I believe out of courtesy to you personally, he refrained from using the word "individuals"....be that as it may, you obviously have not taken the sound advice offered to "read more carefully".

One things for sure, Liberty, your inability to absorb and digest the truth is apparent to all....and manifest in your regurgitation of conspiracy after conspiracy, add infinitum...

If you were a little more astute, and tried for once to figure a few things out by carefully reading a few things I've posted....a realization may dawn on you about me personally.

But, I've often had those with similar mindsets to yours engage in transference of their anger toward the west placed upon me personally, because I'm an American. One only has to read your posts above to see this manifest.

But be THAT as it may....If you read SMCCDI's letter VERY carefully, the truth on the page should jump right out at you, and a real big lightbulb will go off in your head called "enlightenment".

An old Texas Cowboy expression "You can lead a horse to water, but you can't make him drink." I think is the operative analogy in your case.

You are the only one that can take your blinders off, and stop living in the past. It colors your perceptions of the present.

I'm surprised that you, like many others, have not uttered one word about the long standing ties the mullahs have with Russia, China, North Korea, India, Pakistan, Ukraine,...both in economic and military support, as well as their assistance with WMD programs that fundementally do not provide the Iran Nation with security, when on our end, it is theoreticly possible for the US to nuke Qom tommorrow, to end the IRI's ambitions.

But then, that's not something I think anyone wants, incuding me.

That's why I stand in full concurrance with what has been suggested in SMCCDI's letter, and it's precepts. It provides options to the international community, as a logical means to solve an international problem.

It is presented by Iranians (unlike you) who take responsibility for their own future, addressing the needs of the Iranian people for concurrance among nations to shed the past relationships with the IRI, and move in a morally responsible way to effect change of regime, without ever mentioning the phrase "regime change".....which just invokes controversy......

Think about what is being said in this letter....think very carefully.

You had no comment regarding it, and I'm curious why. Maybe you just didn't grasp what was written....

The stakes at this present time couldn't be greater for your people or mine. And for all people...because this is an interconnected world we live in.
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PostPosted: Sun Sep 11, 2005 11:26 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Iran defies nuclear referral risk
By Frances Harrison
BBC News, Tehran

The EU has hardened its stance since Iran resumed nuclear activity
Iran's new foreign minister has warned of "consequences" if Europe refers Iran to the United Nations Security Council over its nuclear programme.

Speaking at a news conference, Dr Manucher Mottaki said there was no legal basis for referral because Iran had been very transparent.

He ruled out any renewed suspension of uranium conversion in the future.

But he did say Tehran favoured carrying on negotiations and would look at having more parties around the table.

'Lose-lose situation'

Talks with the European Union are unlikely, however, as Europe says Iran's decision last month to resume conversion of uranium violated the agreement underpinning months of negotiations.

Dr Mottaki has warned that referring Iran to the UN over its nuclear programme would be what he called "a lose-lose situation".

Asked if such a move would prompt Tehran to suspend its adherence to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), the minister said no such decision had yet been made.

A group of MPs has started collecting signatures for a bill obliging Iran to pull out of the NPT if it is referred to the UN.

It is not clear how serious this move is. A senior parliamentarian has told an Iranian website that the MPs do not represent the final view of parliament.


Comment: IRI hasn't been adhering to NPT for over a decade...."consequences" ????? MMmm, sounds like a thinly veiled threat, if not outright blackmail.....as a member of the UN, Iran is obligated to adhere to the decisions of the UN, its Charter, and the agreements it is signature to....but the IRI as a government has never done so.

It's going to get ugly I'm afraid........I give diplomacy about a 2% chance of working......and the longer this remains the case, the better SMCCDI's proposals look to the international community.

My question to folks here is this, what do you do when you get what you want.....with all the divisions and factionalism in the opposition.....can folks come together in common cause, putting their differences off until there's a real chance to express preference in a referendum for a new secular, representitive government structure?

Are the various opposition groups inside and outside Iran, able to effect regime change from within, with the help of the international community's solidarity with liberty, having cut the regime off at the knees economicly and politically in the UN? Assuming for the moment that this happens in the UN.

This is I think a real big question for a lot of folks in the west and in the opposition, whether it is do-able or not without military intervention.
It's one thing to "stand with you as you stand for your own liberty", but if you folks can't stand up at this point and effect change, others will inevitably have to.

My feeling is that the Iranian people must be given the chance to succeed, if war is to be prevented at some point in the inevitable future (as things stand now in all probability, given the regime's long term agenda).
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Liberty Now !

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Posts: 521

PostPosted: Sun Sep 11, 2005 2:32 pm    Post subject: No! Reply with quote

this is not about 1953, but 1979 and Green Belt: the rise or revival of Islamo-Fascism.

and NO! I don't agree with Toofan (what a spooky name):

I don't think CIA and MI6 can go around meddling in other nations' affairs, and then blame them for all the consequences.

I believe U.S gov. taking responsibility for the mess created by it's own past policies, can set an example for the rest.

hopefully EU3 will follow the lead. and if not it should be exposed.

why do you guys insist to make these meddlings legitimate?

you really don't need to. just bully your way into the next mess.
don't let my complains stop ya! lol

I mean, you're gonna do what you do best, then go right ahead and bomb the hell out of half the world.

why do you care what the people think of it? when you're gonna do it anyways!

besides, you're forgetting one thing here:

these are nukes we're talking about here, it's no joke honey!
once you unleashe one, others will unleash some of their own on top of your heads too!

so don't be so sure that you're going to watch Iranian children's corps on CNN with a box of cheap beer, and continue to live your "normal" un-sympathatic little life safe and sound from a World War!

nice little sadistic dream, but wont happen dear.
Paayande Iran
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PostPosted: Sun Sep 11, 2005 6:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote


Again , blaming others for the concequences of the political divisions that have historicly existed in Iran for as long as modern history has been recorded is a failure to factor in the internal dynamics of the history of your nation...this is what Toofan was trying to patiently explain to you, as I have as well.

Your resentment you wear on your sleave like some victim, simply is your inability to grasp the future with both hands...since you are still clinging to the past.

Fact is, you seem to defend the IRI for what it has become as a function of external influence....they have their own agenda...and have interfered in many nations over the years through terrorism and other means to influence and further their intent.

Well, that's all going to come to a screeching halt....

But the IRI will do its best to make life miserable in the process of the Iranian people gaining freedom from this barbaric regime.

You want to talk about Nukes? I've been dealing with that subject since before you were in diapers....it's a matter of family history. You want to call me a warmonger as you've inplied in your last post? Not only are you very wrong, but also completely alone in that clueless opinion.

You really ought to take Toofan's good advice and read things more carefully before you post inane comment and insult.

If history was as you describe it, a la your so called "Green belt" conspiracy theory.... why then is not Reza Phalavi placing the same blame as you are? Seems to me he's got a much more legitimate case (as the injured party) than you do....but the reason that's not happening is because your revisionist version of history is not only incomplete, but lacking in truthfullness. At least he understands that the Iranian people made one huge mistake in 79....

Again Toofan was being fair to your apparent lack of understanding regarding the events in 53...and yet you simply insult a person who's trying to fill in your gaps in understanding the many factors involved.

You really shouldn't be making statement of fact that you cannot back up with facts. Toofan gave you some solid facts, and you had no rational basis to refer to his friends as "CIA"....you don't even have a clue what up. That's also typical of jebbemeli mentality and/or IRI agent methodology on forums...and this you did because he mentioned Soviet involvement I'm positive...See you fall into a pattern that exposes you for what your intent is...like clockwork.

Early on you stated you weren't "taking to you guys anymore." to Rasker and myself....why do you persist then?

I mean, it's not like anyone takes your diatribes seriously anyway.....(chuckle)....

As far as I can tell, your credibility with folks on the board is pretty well in the pits...and there's a reason for this....one of your own making.

Say I should have an "open mind"? That seems pretty hypocritical when you have such a fixated viewpoint, and dysfunctional manner in relating to others. But I have come to expect that of you...joke that you are.

BTW, calling me "honey" won't make me all sweetness and light...(chuckle)...
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