[FREE IRAN Project] In The Spirit Of Cyrus The Great

[Guest]

No, I am not from JM...usually I am not political at all. One day I was watching Dr. Ahura Yazdi and I suddently became interested in politics concerning Iran and the west. So after some thought, I searched on the internet for a site that is working to Free Iran from the mullahs and I came to this site. I am still an amateur in many of my arguments since I am only 18 years old but I do learn from my mistakes. I have no political agenda and my sole purpose here is to learn and give my feedback on different issues concerning Iran and its quest for peace and democracy.

I am still reading some articles about the NPT, and will reply to you all soon.

[Liberator]

[Guest]

The effectiveness of sanctions will depend on 5 factors:

1. The goal of the sanction. When the goals are more ambitious, the sanction will be less effective.

2. The size of the economy of country that is under sanctions. If the target country is small, the sanctions will be very successful, if the country is bigger, then the sanctions might not be successful.

3. The amount of dependence on foreigners and how much trade the target country does. If the target country’s economy is more integrated in the world economy, the sanctions will be more successful.

4. The length of sanctions. The successful sanctions are short while the unsuccessful sanctions are usually long.

5. The cost to the countries imposing the sanctions. When the cost of the sanctions to the countries imposing sanctions is higher, the sanctions will be less successful because of the black market and internal pressure.

Let’s analyze the case of Iran:

1. The goal will be “regime change”, which is very ambitious.

2. Iran’s economy is large with the purchasing power parity standing at $516.7 billion!

3. The Iranian economy is an oil dependent economy. Other parts of the economy are not integrated in the world market.

4. The length of the sanction is unpredictable, but it is safe to say that it will be long. Mullahs survived the Iran-Iraq war years with the slump in oil prices and a low Iranian budget using the black market and illegal channels to supply the army. They will probably survive the sanctions by employing the same methods.

5. Because Iran is a major oil producer in the world, there will be many who will oppose the sanction. This will cause the mullahs to be able to continue selling oil through the illegal channels.


Now, in the scenario of the sanctions, the mullahs’ elements of repression are still intact. They will be able to continue to rule while the Iranian people will be forced to use ration cards like the early days of revolution. Now, using a blanket sanction which prevents Iran from buying goods like foodstuff will not really do any harm to the mullahs. That’s why I support sanction if they are smart sanctions on goods like weapons.

[Rasker]

I am undecided on the question of general sanctions against Iran. One source I posted recently claims that those might well cause a tipping point toward a general unprising of such magnitude that freedom might be won without much bloodshed. On the other hand, sanctions against Iraq only allowed Saddam to skim off $billions while starving his own people, and never threatened his bloody rule.

If a South African type weapons sanction were effectively forced on the regime, together with priority dual-use technologies (and that is a BIG if with all the mercenary arms dealing regimes out there) then the future might appear bleak enough that the regime might seek a South African type 'soft landing' as opposed to eventually swinging from a lamp post. But such a sanction would have get though the Security Council, where France, China and Russia could each stop it in its tracks.

The United States could easily blockade all IRI oil exports out of the Persian Gulf, but the legal justification would have to be something like 1) proven sponsorship of terrorism against Iraq and Afghanistan (or even the US or current treaty partners in NATO or elsewhere) or 2) 'nuke'violation of the NPT. Throttling the oil would starve the regime within a few months, I would guess (I dont know how much could be moved out by pipeline or other ways). A blockade is a 'softer' form of military force, and gives the other side the choice of firing the first shot or not. Bush and any partners would have to put up with a lot of yowling from the usual quarters, but perhaps IRI defiance on the nuclear question might actually bring France and Germany along this time, perhaps Russia as well!
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The Sun Is Rising In The West!Soon It Will Shine on All of Iran!

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THIS SHAHRIAR IS A FRAUD, ANYONE THAT USES SOMEONE ELSE'S PICTURE AND TALKS FROM BOTH SIDE OF HIS MOUTH IS A FRAUD THE GOOD THING IS THAT EVERYONE IS ONTO HIM........