[FREE IRAN Project] In The Spirit Of Cyrus The Great

[freedomfighter]

Whither Iran? Ask Slobo

Exclusive commentary by Marc C. Johnson
http://www.washingtondispatch.com/article_6952.shtml

Oct 24, 2003

As America sits entranced by Election '04, thousands of students protest in Iran. Weary from years of enduring the brutality of a regime run by a cult of personality, they lead by protesting non-violently. The mullahs, led by Supreme Leader Khamenei, strike back, unleashing the Basiji militias against the protesters.

Predictably, the regime pillories the protesters, calling them counter-revolutionary tools of Western imperialism. Opposition newspapers are shut down. European commentators dismiss the students as a group of feckless intellectuals. The protesters, however, remain undaunted. Their ranks swell.

After months of protest and a crescendo of discontent, the confrontation comes to a head, pitting soldiers, Basiji, and riot police against a growing mob. Facing down the protesters, the shock troops wisely back down, unwilling to kill ordinary citizens. The theocracy collapses under the weight of its own repressive policies.

Sound familiar? It ought to.

Virtually the same story, in a different time and place, occurred in the fall of 2000. The place was Yugoslavia, the leader was Slobodan Milosevic.

It is not so far-fetched a scenario. What sanctions, untold intelligence operations, and diplomacy have failed to achieve since Iran's 1979 revolution might be accomplished by a small band of souls who dare imagine a government that represents them. They will not be able to realize their dreams, however, without help.

The administration understands that the youthful Iranian nation, internally and abroad, opposes military action. But the opposition is crying out for moral support. President Bush has taken the first step by indicating his approval of the students' protest, and he explicitly warned Khamenei to heed his admonition that the protesters be treated with respect. The charter member of the Axis of Evil is on notice.

If America's commitment to freedom is to mean anything, however, we should lend a hand. We must show the opposition how, in the words of our own First Amendment, "to peaceably assemble for a redress of their grievances." The model for this exists in Yugoslavia.

U.S. support was the key factor that allowed the Yugoslav Otpor (Resistance) to survive its initial birthing complications and flourish as an opposition movement. America provided roughly $100 million to anti-Milosevic groups in order to get the population to realize that regime change was possible.

After official U.S. government support came billionaire George Soros, providing expertise and funds which in turn opened the door to assistance from European Non-Governmental Organizations. Far from being merely catchy slogans, official and NGO support showed Otpor's factions that one united voice was more effective than many crying out in the wilderness.

Though neither as large nor as repressive as Iran, Yugoslavia was still what U.S. intelligence euphemistically calls a "denied area," meaning that it was essentially a police state. Recognizing this, Otpor's Western helpers set up in Budapest for most of 2000 and trained the groups there before sending them back into Serbia. Otpor's members must have known that they were facing a significant degree of personal risk, but still they went. In the end, Yugoslav President-elect Vojislav Kostunica proved anything but a toady to Western influence; Kostunica distanced himself from the West and took a decidedly nationalistic line.

The administration should resist the temptation to involve the Defense Department and the Central Intelligence Agency in Iranian opposition activities, successful as CIA and DoD have recently been elsewhere. The mullahs regularly (and spuriously) refer to the CIA-sponsored 1953 coup that brought down Mossadegh as being a modern parallel to their own jihad against American designs on regional power. Keeping the CIA and Defense transparently out of the business of training non-violent groups would frustrate attempts by Khamenei and his cabal to smear the opposition with past history as opposition activities ramp up.

Iran is not Yugoslavia; in many ways, it will be a far tougher nut to crack. Yugoslavia has 10 million people while Iran has nearly 70 million. The mullahs' regime has proven willing to take even more draconian measures against its own people. And, whereas Milosevic's only objective was to stay in power, the mullahs are puritanical ideologues who may have convinced themselves of their own virtue.

So the oppositionists will, as ever, have the hardest and most dangerous job. They will take the fight to the streets armed only with principle while the government they struggle against abandons all civility. America should fight its isolationist tendencies and show our commitment to freedom by pitching in; assistance will win more respect than interference.