[FREE IRAN Project] In The Spirit Of Cyrus The Great

[Farnaz]

Coming Clean or Playing for Time?

October 22, 2003
The Economist
The Economist Print Edition
http://www.economist.com/agenda/displayStory.cfm?story_id=2154821

European foreign ministers have persuaded Iran to suspend its programme to enrich uranium that may be used to make nuclear weapons, and to allow tougher inspections of its nuclear facilities. But sceptics fear this may be a delaying tactic.

IRAN’S ambitions to build nuclear weapons—denied by the Islamic state—have long been a source of concern on both sides of the Atlantic. However, America and Europe have not always been in complete agreement over what to do about it. President George Bush made his feelings clear when he linked Iran with Iraq and North Korea in his “axis of evil”. Britain, France and Germany, meanwhile, seemed to place more emphasis on dialogue. Nevertheless, officials on both sides of the Atlantic were cheered by Iran’s agreement, on Tuesday October 21st, to European requests that it stop enriching uranium and sign up to a protocol allowing a tougher inspection regime at its nuclear sites. As part of the agreement, a set of documents outlining Iran’s nuclear programmes is due to be sent to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in Vienna on October 22nd, though it will take days for the agency to respond.

This is, however, clearly not the end of the saga, and sceptics in the Bush administration remain unconvinced. For one thing, the agreement is maddeningly vague. When does it start? And how will the suspension of the enrichment be confirmed? If this has been decided, the Iranians aren’t telling anyone.

Indeed, they have become more co-operative more out of necessity than choice. On September 12th, the board of the IAEA gave the country until October 31st to dispel doubts about its nuclear ambitions. This was after Iran was forced to confess, after years of denials, to having bought uranium-enrichment technology from abroad and to having experimented with some nuclear material (though it still vehemently denies ever enriching uranium for illegal purposes).

If Iran had not agreed to come clean, the agency would have reported it to the United Nations Security Council. The Bush administration made it clear that it would press for full economic sanctions in that event. These would have a crippling effect on Iran’s crumbling economy. Even Russia, which has been supplying Iran with nuclear technology (and whose president, Vladimir Putin, pointedly declined American requests to halt the programme) would have had difficulty in opposing such a move. Russia now wants new inspection rules in place before delivering nuclear fuel to the power plant it is building at Bushehr, on the Persian Gulf.

Apart from the many questions about Tuesday's agreement that remain unanswered, it will have no standing until ratified by Iran’s Supreme National Security Council. Some hardliners protested noisily outside the hall where the agreement was struck, claiming that the new protocol was “a source of shame for Iran”. Despite the past divisions between the Americans and Europeans on how to handle Iran, the country’s hardliners like to portray the Europeans as little more than American lackeys. However, the key Iranian negotiator was Hassan Rowhani, who is the secretary to the supreme council and who was appointed by Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. This should ensure that the protocol is ratified, however unpalatable that may be.

However hopeful this agreement may be, it can only be a temporary respite. Writing in the current issue of The Economist, Mohamed ElBaradei, the director-general of the IAEA, warned that: “Should a state with a fully developed fuel-cycle capability decide...to break away from its non-proliferation commitments, most experts believe it could produce a nuclear weapon within a matter of months.” Under the nuclear non-proliferation treaty itself, countries have to give only 90 days notice to withdraw. With so much technology at its fingertips, and with its hardliners so influential, Iran’s nuclear ambitions will continue to be a headache for America and its allies.